Bizav's flight path

Business aviation has experienced remarkable changes in the 15 years since BJT began publishing in October 2003. Here’s a look at some of the most memorable developments we’ve witnessed—and at the trends we think might characterize the next 15 years.

THE LAST 15 YEARS

The industry nosedived but eventually recovered.

Prospects looked excellent for the business aviation field when BJT debuted, but everything changed in the wake of the global financial crisis that developed in 2007 and 2008. There was a sharp drop in aircraft delivery numbers from which the industry still has not completely recovered, and many people lost their jobs.

For years, analysts kept predicting an imminent turnaround, but it remained elusive. Now, however, the industry really does seem to be making a comeback. Business aviation flight hours in the second quarter of 2018 reached the highest level since 2008, according to Jet Support Services. In Europe, meanwhile, bizav flight-departure numbers recently flirted with the peak achieved in 2008, reports Germany-based WingX Advance. Some manufacturers are recording sales increases, and the preowned market has been heating up as well.

Some fliers started thinking small.

While long-range aircraft remain in demand, light and very light jets (VLJs) have energized the other end of the market. They became more popular after the 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington because they require less-intense security measures than larger aircraft. Passengers also like their low operating costs and ability to operate on short runways.

Some of the lighter aircraft that were introduced in recent years, such as the Citation Mustang VLJ, had impactful but short runs. Others, though, are thriving, including Embraer’s Phenom 100, which has a range of 915 nautical miles and a maximum cruise speed of 390 ktas.

The HondaJet, meanwhile, has helped Honda Aircraft to break into new markets. The model, which received FAA and EASA certifications in 2015 and 2016, has led to programs such as FlightJoy, a China-based charter operation. This year, the company announced and delivered HondaJet Elite, which incorporates cabin updates and improvements to the aircraft’s Garmin G3000–based flight deck.

One of the newest very light jets is the Cirrus Vision SF50. Priced at $2 million and offering a range of more than 1,000 nautical miles, it received FAA and EASA certification in 2016 and 2017. The first European delivery took place in 2017, the year the company increased production to one per week.

Connectivity became a must.

“Flying was once a time for executives to disconnect because they didn’t have a choice,” says John Peterson, senior director of connectivity services at Honeywell Aerospace. “Best-case scenario was you’d plug in your laptop, but you couldn’t be interactive with your staff.” In-flight entertainment consisted of magazines, CDs, VHS tapes, DVDs, and other hard-copy material.

When BlackBerry introduced its first email-equipped mobile phone in 2002, however, executives became invested in the feature and wanted to be able to use it in flight. And Apple’s iPhone, which debuted in 2007, led to a demand for technology that could handle in-flight downloading of apps and streaming of entertainment.

By 2008, Inmarsat had introduced Swift-Broadband and, by 2009, Gogo was offering air-to-ground connectivity that utilized North America’s 3G ground network. ViaSat unveiled Yonder, which employed the Global Ku system. Since then, we’ve seen the debut of technology such as Ka-band Satcom, that has allowed for increasingly high-speed and seamless onboard connectivity. And while such connectivity was initially possible only in larger aircraft, smaller antennas and more affordable systems have in recent years opened the market to a range of other models.

We witnessed some spectacular business flameouts.

While many charter companies have weathered the economy’s ups and downs over the last 15 years, a handful of operators have gone out of business. Singapore-based Zetta Jet, for example, failed just two years after its 2015 launch. Filing a lawsuit in a U.S. district court, the company charged ousted managing director Geoffery Cassidy with misappropriation of funds as well as fraud. The lawsuit was later dismissed because the court said it lacked jurisdiction; after being denied Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, meanwhile, Zetta Jet was forced into liquidation in 2017.

Another flameout was Virgin Charter, which was part of Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin USA division. In 2008, the company stood out from other charter operators because it allowed customers to book flights online. Profits were supposed to come from a 5 percent fee tacked onto the price of each charter trip, but at its peak Virgin Charter was reportedly spending up to $750,000 a month with little revenue coming in. A company statement cited “severe decline in corporate travel” and the inability “to generate sufficient sales to underpin its business plan” as factors that led to the end of operations in 2009.

DayJet, which launched in 2002, ran into financial problems by 2008. The per-seat, on-demand VLJ air-taxi firm announced that it could not acquire an additional $40 million of operating capital, which caused it to ground 16 aircraft and terminate 100 employees. DayJet ceased operations in September 2008 and filed for bankruptcy two months later.

Fractional provider Avantair was founded in 2003 and offered time-card options for its Piaggio P.180 Avantis. The company grounded its fleet in 2012 in the wake of allegations that it wasn’t properly tracking time-controlled parts on the aircraft. Meanwhile, Avantair was seeking financial arrangements to keep the company afloat while also facing a customer class-action lawsuit regarding the breaching of a lease agreement for six airplanes. After filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, Avantair ceased operations in 2013.

Flight clubs and per-seat charter gained popularity.

While jet cards and fractional ownership have continued to attract interest, the most notable recently introduced access methods have been flight clubs and per-seat charter.

More than a few industry observers expressed skepticism about per-seat charter because they believed passengers would not want to share an airplane with strangers. However, many business travelers have seemed more interested in savings than in having the cabin to themselves.

California-based all-you-can-fly service Surf Air expanded its U.S. and European footprint earlier this year. Although Surf Air is trying to grow in new regions in the U.S. and Europe, it is also facing financial and legal problems. JetSmarter, which launched in 2012, has also made strides with its shared charter and shuttle flights, and now operates throughout the U.S. and in Europe and the Middle East.

Kenny Dichter, CEO and cofounder of Wheels Up, says his membership operation works well in North America and Europe because a majority of intracontinental flights in these regions are under two hours. When Wheels Up began in 2013, it purchased a fleet of Beechcraft King Air 350is to address two-hour-flight needs in North America. Today, Wheels Up, which also offers Citation Excels and Citation Xs, arranges flights on nearly 100 aircraft and has approximately 5,000 active members. (Wheels Up does not operate its aircraft; other companies do so on its behalf.)

“I think that we’re in a membership economy,” Dichter says. “I always said that Wheels Up wants to be more Netflix than NetJets. Ownership had its day in the aviation pyramid, but I think that consumers today would rather be members and not have to own an asset if they or their business can get access to that asset on a 24/7/365 basis.”

New markets opened.

Though North America remains the leading business aviation market, the industry over the past 15 years has become increasingly global, a trend that provided some buffer for manufacturers during the prolonged economic downturn that began in 2008. Two of the markets that have developed the most are Southeast Asia and Europe, according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA).

One reason for growth in the latter area: the annual European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition (EBACE), which has helped to popularize private flying on the Continent. This year’s show featured more than 100 new exhibitors and a sold-out static display. The region recently witnessed 16 consecutive months of growth in business aviation traffic, according to European Business Aviation Association chairman Juergen Weiss.

Europe has accounted for 15 to 20 percent of business aircraft sales in the past decade, according to Jens Hennig, vice president of operations at GAMA. A shift began in 2007 and 2008, when the Continent represented about a quarter of the market.

In China, meanwhile, bizav took off in recent years. (BJT took off with it, launching the annual China edition of our Buyers’ Guide in 2012). Last year, general aviation flight hours in the country reached 735,000. The Asian Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition, which has been held annually in Shanghai since 2012, attracted more than 170 exhibitors in 2018

THE NEXT 15 YEARS

Next-gen supersonics will likely debut.

At the end of May, the FAA announced two rulemakings that it said would aid development of civil supersonic aircraft: proposed noise certification for such aircraft and clarifications of practices required to obtain authorization to flight-test them in the U.S. According to the organization, Part 136 noise-certification regulations, which apply only to subsonic aircraft, are required to establish the technological and economic basis for noise levels appropriate for supersonic models such as Aerion’s AS2, which is expected to hit the market by 2023.

That aircraft, which benefits from Lockheed Martin’s engineering support, will be able to fly at Mach 1.5 and reach London from New York in just a few hours. In June, Aerion senior vice president and COO Ernest Edwards told BJT sister publication Aviation International News that the company hopes to sell 600 of the aircraft over 20 years, each costing $120 million.

The AS2 isn’t the only supersonic in the works. NASA, for example, recently awarded a contract to Lockheed to design, build, and test a supersonic model known as an X-plane that reduces a sonic boom to a sound no louder than that of a car door closing.

Other advanced aircraft will become available.

For those content to fly at just a bit below the speed of sound, several new alternatives are on the horizon. Among them are Bombardier’s Global 5500 and 6500, which were announced this year at EBACE and are set to enter service by 2019. Rolls-Royce’s Pearl engines power the aircraft, which feature a wing with a reprofiled trailing edge for better aerodynamics that allow for a top speed of Mach 0.90. Additional range enables the Global 5500 to connect Moscow and Los Angeles; the 6500 can connect Hong Kong with London.

Meanwhile, Dassault recently introduced the 6X, which replaces the 5X and is slated to enter service in 2022. Its 5,500-nautical-mile range represents a 300-nautical-mile increase from what the 5X would have offered, and the 6X cabin is 20 inches longer, which allows for a larger aft lounge, a larger forward galley, or a crew rest area.

The new Pilatus PC-24, Pilatus’s first jet, continues to increase its deliveries. At EBACE this year, the company announced that it plans to deliver 23 or 24 aircraft in 2018, 40 in 2019, and 50 in 2020. While the first one went to fractional-share operator PlaneSense in February, the order book has been closed since 2014. The company intends to reopen it in 2019 and may then take orders for an improved version of the aircraft. The current model offers a range of 2,035 nautical miles with four passengers.

The industry is also heading toward electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Featuring electric and hybrid-electric sources, these aircraft offer pilotless operations that are ideal for shorter flights. Companies such as Airbus, Boeing, Bell, Embraer, Intel, Amazon, Rolls-Royce, Honda, Toyota, and Uber have all invested in eVTOL.

Aurora Flight Sciences is working on a fully electric eVTOL model that aims to cut long commutes caused by heavy traffic in thickly populated areas. Aurora, which will initially employ safety pilots and transition to pilotless aircraft, expects test flights to begin in 2020 throughout the U.S. and in Dubai, UAE.

Pilotless aircraft continue to be on the horizon. A 2017 report by Swiss analyst UBS suggests that they could annually save the air-transportation industry $35 billion. The report, titled “Flying solo—how far are we down the path towards pilotless planes?,” anticipates that these aircraft could be ready for commercial operation by 2025. Today, Boeing, Airbus, and NASA are among those working on concepts for pilotless aircraft.

New markets will become viable.

Business aviation is attempting to find its footing in regions such as Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. For Latin America, economic and political strains previously suggested that business aviation might have an unsteady future in the region. However, in Brazil—whose economy has been unstable before and since the 2016 impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff—the business aviation landscape has been improving.

The first half of 2017 was better than 2016 for business aviation but it was “still not where the country would be in a normal year,” noted Brazilian Association for General Aviation chairman Leonardo Fiuza at last year’s Latin American Business Aviation Conference and Exhibition. The show featured 50 fixed-wing aircraft on the static display, which was a record number for LABACE.

“There’s a lack of infrastructure, especially on the ATC [air traffic control] side, but as that grows I think that’s going to be a fantastic market for us as well,” says GAMA’s Hennig.

Companies like Pilatus have been able to increase their sales in Latin America. Synerjet, the Pilatus sales agent for South and Central America, confirmed last year that it was able to improve sales in Latin America in 2016 and 2017 after expanding beyond Brazil. Bell (formerly Bell Helicopter) saw a bit of recovery in Latin America in 2017, according to Jay Ortiz, the company’s vice president of Latin American sales.

Parts of Africa and the Middle East are also ripe for expansion. Events like the Middle East and North Africa Business Aviation Association show (MEBAA) and the Dubai Airshow are helping to popularize private air travel in the region. Organizers of this year’s MEBAA show—the third-largest event of its kind after the EBACE and NBAA conventions—expect it to attract 10,000 visitors and 500 exhibitors.

The African Business Aviation Association (AfBAA) has focused on engaging with regulators and politicians in areas such as Ethiopia and Nigeria and has opened local chapters. Last year’s African Business Aviation Conference (AfBAC) in Johannesburg, South Africa attracted 170 delegates and served as a way for attendees to share information as well as spread the word about business aviation opportunities.

“Key parts of the African continent have started investing in our industry,” Hennig says. “It’s going to be exciting to watch how that develops.”

While the Southeast Asian market has expanded, it has further to go. In 2017, Asian Sky Group reported that more growth can be expected in the region than in markets such as mainland China and India. Singapore’s Seletar Aerospace Park has continued to add facilities, and Hawker Pacific plans to double its footprint.

Your connection to the ground will be even better.

Today, being accessible during a flight to family, friends, and colleagues isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. Given the popularity of technology like Skype and Apple’s FaceTime, people may soon feel the same about onboard videoconferencing.

“Fifteen years from now, you’re going to be on airplanes talking to your family [on the ground], looking at them,” Honeywell’s Peterson says. “That’s still kind of hard to do today, even with the [Ka-band] JetConnex system at 15 megabits per second.”

You can expect improvements, too, in flight-related communications on the ground. A company called Flight Key, for example, already allows users to compile the details of their flights and invite participants to follow along on a Web-based platform. These participants can include the operator, ground-transportation provider, caterer, executive assistants, charter brokers, and passengers. Users can communicate through a live-chat feature on the platform and can assign tasks that everyone can track. For example, a user can assign the caterer to order food. Once that has been done, the caterer can note the job’s completion on the platform.

Climate change will greatly impact business aviation.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Council recently expanded its efforts for the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). CORSIA, which was agreed upon by ICAO’s 192 member states in 2016, will be mandatory for operators in these states by 2027. The emissions-offsetting scheme has three goals: improve fuel efficiency by an average of 1.5 percent per year from 2009 to 2020; cap CO2 emissions from international flights at 2020 levels; and reduce net aviation CO2 emissions by 50 percent by 2050 so they are close to 2005 levels.

This June, ICAO adopted an agreement that allows states and airlines to implement CORSIA. Most business aviation operators and smaller aircraft are exempt from CORSIA because their fleets don’t reach the 10,000-metric-ton maximum for CO2 emissions. However, business aviation operators who do qualify for the program will have to start measuring CO2 emissions from all international flights they operate beginning January 1. The CO2 data from 2019 and 2020 will be used to determine the reference baseline against which future growth in carbon emissions in international flying will be compared and offset. [For more on this, see “Bizav’s Climate-Change Response Gets Back on Track,” in our previous issue. —Ed.]

Flying privately will become more affordable.

While some business jet travelers continue to buy large jets and spend thousands of dollars per flight hour to own and operate them, the trend toward more affordable options seems to be accelerating.

A variety of factors are driving down costs. For example, web technology is allowing operators to tap the revenue potential of so-called deadheads—the trips required to return an aircraft to its base that customarily carries no passengers. As noted earlier, meanwhile, operators like Surf Air are starting to offer low-cost all-you-can-fly options while others, such as JetSmarter, are touting deeply discounted flights. JetSuite, which operates in California and Nevada, sells seats on scheduled flights that it bills as “semi-private” for eye-popping prices—as low as $129 between Orange County, California and Las Vegas, for example.

At that rate, who knows how inexpensive private flying will be by the time BJT publishes its 30th anniversary issue 15 years from now. Perhaps by then, you’ll be able to fly privately from New York to L.A. for the amount you now pay to take a taxi across town.

Okay, maybe not. But we can dream.