Newcomer Demand for Private Flying Wanes, Analyst Says

Following the surge in private flying from newcomers with the onset of the pandemic, demand looks to be diminishing from that group, according to industry analyst and consultant Brian Foley.

Supporting his thesis are data from WingX and Amstat that show slowing activity in branded charter and an increase in preowned aircraft inventory. Those metrics “indicate the peak has passed for the general public’s discovery and fascination with private aviation,” Foley wrote, adding that many of them are returning to the airlines. Furthering that dampening of demand are concerns over a recession and the expiration of 100 percent bonus depreciation in the U.S.

At its peak, Foley noted, charter operators were reporting as much as 50 percent of their business coming from people who had never chartered before. Manufacturers such as Textron Aviation reported 20 percent of their customers were new to aircraft ownership. The decline in private flying demand could affect orders that fractional and charter companies placed for new aircraft to address the pandemic-induced clamor.

Foley estimated that less than 10 percent of those new to private aviation will remain. However, he said, “It still favorably raises the baseline obtainable market for the industry from this point forward. This is frankly a relief for an industry that was never scaled to be a mass-transit system and has been overwhelmed over the last couple of years.”