Are recent bizav forecasts already outdated?

Business jet "delivery forecasts [were] outdated the day they were published," according to aviation-industry consultant Brian Foley. In his view, "new aircraft orders are poised to fall off a cliff. The record order books will not be as firm as OEMs would like to think, and [we] expect double-digit percentage order cancellations, depending on the manufacturer."

Because of cancellations and deferrals, worldwide deliveries of new business aircraft will peak next year, predicted Foley, who is president of Sparta, N.J.-based Brian Foley Associates. "For the next few months," he added, "OEMs will provide earlier delivery slots to solid contract holders as others cancel or are unable to make progress payments. This will keep deliveries strong only for the rest of this year and next."

A similar forecast recently came from The Teal Group, which revised the annual Business Jet Overview that it issued in May. The group now expects business
jet deliveries to peak next year, a year earlier than predicted in the overview.
The revised forecast still calls for the post-peak downturn to hit bottom in 2012, but instead of a "modest dip," Teal now estimates a 25-percent market drop by value, relative to the expected peak.

Teal's updated forecast calls for 13,457 business jets worth $212 billion to be delivered between 2008 and 2018, down from the original outlook, which predicted 14,289 jets worth $218 billion. These figures include only "traditional business jets," but not bizliners or regional jet variants such as the Embraer Legacy 600 and Bombardier Challenger 850.

According to Teal vice president of analysis Richard Aboulafia, the post-market drop recovery is conservatively pegged to a 10-percent compound annual growth rate.