Supersonic Bizjet Launch Inches Closer, Says Analyst

“We’re much closer to a supersonic business jet (SSBJ) being formally launched” as costs and persistent risks related to regulatory issues, engines, and sonic-boom noise are “progressively mitigated,” according to aviation analyst Brian Foley. “The final impetus will be from the realization that to command this relatively small but high-value market requires being early to capture finite sales.”

One primary regulatory risk has been defining what constitutes an acceptable sonic-boom noise over land, “which can be quite subjective,” he said. The FAA is re-examining the supersonic flight-over-land ban, which Foley hopes will result in “much-needed guidance and design latitude” in the coming months.

Another challenge he cited is a powerplant able to operate in the supersonic regime while still offering reasonable times between maintenance overhauls. It also comes down to an issue of money: “Who pays for the development of a new or derivative engine that meets these unique performance and durability requirements?” he asked.

An SSBJ platform needs both a civil and government market component to be successful, Foley noted. “Once the race is on with teams formed and proper funding, the concept could leap forward. While I now view a formal SSBJ launch as being more conceivable than ever, it’s still moving at the very subsonic speed of technology, regulation, and money.”