Forecast Intl: Bizjet Recovery Delayed until 2012

BJT Staff

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December 2010

A study out this week by Forecast International projects that the decline in business jet production, which began in 2008, will continue through 2011. Looking ahead, Forecast International predicts a total of 11,437 business jets with an estimated value of $217.5 billion will be produced from 2010 through 2019. "The business jet market is not yet in recovery, but the worst of the market downturn is over," said Raymond Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst at U.S.-based Forecast International. "Order intake remains sluggish, but the massive wave of order cancellations and delivery deferrals experienced in late 2008 and much of 2009 has receded. The market is no longer in freefall." According to the company, slack demand from fractional programs, which fueled a significant percentage of sales before the downturn, is a major factor behind the downturn in orders. "The focus of many fractional providers is on improving operations, reducing costs, and consolidating aircraft fleets," Jaworowski said. Light and midsize aircraft have been more affected by the order decline than the large-cabin and long-range segments of the market, according to the forecast. Going forward, the forecast predicts the top three manufacturers in unit production during the next decade will be Cessna, Embraer and Bombardier, while Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault will lead the market in terms of monetary value of sales.