Business Jet Deliveries To Ramp Up with G700, 6X

Deliveries from the top five business jet manufacturers are forecast to jump by 17 percent from an estimated 575 in 2023 to 670 in 2024, according to investment research firm Jefferies. This would surpass the 652 delivered in 2019, according to the analyst.

Leading this growth are new programs—including Gulfstream’s flagship G700, which is anticipated to soon enter service, and Dassault Aviation’s Falcon 6X—along with an easing of the supply-chain headwinds, Jefferies added.

“[Gulfstream parent General Dynamics (GD)] benefits the most on deliveries and mix, while [Textron] sees more moderate growth,” Jefferies said. The delay in G700 certification, which had been targeted to occur by year-end 2023, pushed at least 15 G700 deliveries into 2024.

In the Jefferies outlook, Gulfstream deliveries would increase from the estimated 114 in 2023 to 155 this year. Jefferies equity research analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu estimated that Gulfstream has built 49 G700s thus far, 30 of which are forecast to be delivered this year. In addition, the Jefferies outlook anticipates G800 certification later this year, with 10 of those handed over by year-end.

As a result, GD’s Aerospace group is poised for a 39 percent EBIT growth in 2024. While anticipating a solid bounce for GD, Jefferies cautioned that a holdup in certification puts at risk G700/G800 deliveries and at least $2.3 billion in revenues this year.

As for Dassault, Jefferies sees a gradual increase from 32 business jets in 2022 to 35 in 2023 and then 52 this year. Overall, the business jet market is anticipated to maintain a book-to-bill of 1:1 with both pricing and sales softening in 2024.